Next Major Update: I am taking a lengthy break....
Signed: Tim Stubbs, Fire Behavior Analyst, Air Tactical Supervisor
This is a general fire behavior discussion/forecast covering the current area(s) of focus only. It is designed to provide wildland fire managers with an overall view of fire behavior potential and to help wildland firefighters with the fire order "initiate all actions based on current and expected fire behavior". Firefighters must use onsite observations and spot weather forecasts to calculate site-specific fire behavior for individual wildland fires. NOTE: THIS WEBSITE IS NOT FORMATTED FOR PRINTING.
**SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE REACHED HISTORIC DRYNESS LEVELS AND FIRES HAVE PRODUCED IN WINDY CONDITIONS SOME VERY ACTIVE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH FREQUENT TORCHING AND SPOTTING OF CEDARS (JUNIPERS). EAST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW PRODUCING MODERATE TO ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR IN SURFACE FUELS WITH NEXUS EXHIBITED TO TORCHING AND SHORT TERM CROWN FIRE AND FREQUENT SPOTTING IN THE PINEYS.
There is now an increasing number of fires each day in Texas with increasing resistance to control. See the links below, particularly the TICC Situation Report and the Wildlandfire.com Hotlist Forum for current fire information.......if you have a user profile and password the Texas Forest Service Dispatch Tracker is the very best source of current information. See the fire photos below for some graphic examples of recent Texas fires. Y'all be safe!
RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE DEPICTED ON THE MAPS BELOW WHERE FIRE BEHAVIOR POTENTIAL WILL BE UPWARDS OF VERY ACTIVE TO EXTREME. (Click maps to enlarge, maps update automatically)
-Recent Texas fire behavior has increased dramatically to periodical sustained crown fire in the pineywoods and major resistance to control in Central Texas, the Hill Country, and in South Texas with VERY ACTIVE fire behavior in afternoon slope or wind-driven runs. Recent fire behavior in Central and South Texas has approached the EXTREME category on windy afternoons. South Texas is particularly vulnerable to EXTREME fire behavior anytime the wind blows due to the extremely dry and abundant state of natural fuels wherever they are ungrazed.
-All fires lately in South Texas have been in cured tall grass under mesquite and live oak brush which has been torching regularly. Consumption of surface fuels was total with VERY ACTIVE surface fire behavior. See photos above and below for fire behavior....
**TEXAS FIRE DANGER/BEHAVIOR AND OTHER GRAPHICS:(Click maps to enlarge, most maps update automatically)
-Greenness of vegetation (fuels) is key to the potential fire behavior in all of Texas, particularly in the grassy areas of the west, south central and north. See current depictions of greenness in Texas at the TICC Predictive Services Live Fuel Moisture site.
TEXAS FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST (out of date)
FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST FROM THE LONE STAR IMT INCIDENT ACTION PLAN
General: The critical fire weather and dry fuels shrink down to the south branch, western portion of
the central branch and the southeast portion of the west branch. However the fringe portions of the
thunderstorm areas will have a high chance of fire activity with the lightning and winds from the
thunderstorms. Outflow winds from thunderstorms could produce extreme fire behavior. With gusts of
20 mph expect to see very active fire behavior with the critically dry fuels. Fine dead fuel moistures
will be around 5% for most of the state with 8% in the east branch. Probability of ignition around the
state will be 71% with 46% in the east branch. Crown fires are likely in drought stressed areas when
surface fuel dryness reaches critically dry levels and fire weather includes temperatures over 95
degrees and minimum RH near 25%. Live fuel moisture in the canopies of Juniper, Oak, and Pine in
the drought stressed areas are extremely low. It takes little surface fire intensity to transition surface
fire to crowns. Spotting out to 200 Yards has been observed from torching 70 foot tall pine timber.
The 100 and 1000 hour fuels are below 10% in much of the southern part of the state. Expect fires to
hold in the larger fuels overnight. Proper mop-up is important to extinguish all of these larger fuels.
Specific:
West Branch: The southeastern portion of this branch continues to dry, some lightning was received
yesterday, holdover fires could be possible late in the afternoon. Grass fuels will support active to
very active fire behavior. Rate of spread in the grass fuels .4 mph and flame lengths of 5 feet.
Maximum rate of active crown spread in closed canopy brush could approach .6 mph with flame
length of 19 ft. Probability of Ignition 71 %.
North Branch: The southern portion of this branch could see fires associated with lightning from
thunderstorms. Expect surface rate of spread in mostly cured grasses near .4 mph. Rate of spread in
timber and brush litter fuels will near .3 mph.
Central Branch: West of the Austin area has high fire danger. Expect very active fire behavior with
the winds and slope in this branch. Crown fire probability is high today with triple digit temperature
and minimum RH near 29%. SE winds at 10 mph will produce surface rate of spread in grass and
grass/shrub mix of 1.2 mph. Rate of spread in timber and brush litter fuel will range from .4-.6 mph
Maximum rate of active crown spread in closed canopy brush on uphill slope could approach 1 mph.
Probability of Ignition 71 %.
South Branch: SE winds at 10-15 mph will produce surface rate of spread in grass and grass/shrub
mix from .4 to .6 mph. Grass fuels are the primary carrier of spread but brush and shrub fuels will
torch and add intensity when encountered. Short range spotting (100 feet) from torching brush at
head possible. Probability of Ignition 83 %.
East Branch: Thunderstorms are possible through this branch. Lightning and outflow winds can be
expected. The west side will begin to dry. East winds 10 mph and fine fuels of 8% will produce a rate
of spread in timber litter from .2 mph with flame lengths from 4 feet. Probability of Ignition of 46%.
IN AREAS OF ACTIVE THROUGH EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FIREFIGHTERS WILL BE AT RISK WITH ANY FRONTAL ASSAULT AT THE HEAD OF THE FIRE. ESTABLISH A SAFE ANCHOR POINT AT THE REAR OF THE FIRE. ATTACK FROM THE BLACK!! USE A FLANKING ACTION WITH ENGINES AND/OR DOZERS IN COMBINATION WITH AIRCRAFT. AVOID FRONTAL ASSAULT WITH GROUND RESOURCES!! SEE ALSO "Implications of Fire Behavior Forecast Adjective Ratings".
Please contact us and provide feedback on the accuracy of these forecasts. Your observations about general fuel conditions and observed fire behavior help validate our forecasts. Thanks Brad Smith, Texas Forest Service Fire Behavior Analyst, and Stewart Turner, Fire Behavior Analyst. for photos, graphics, verbage, and guidance.
Our bottom line and the reason we are here is to provide for the safety of firefighters and the public.
