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Fire Behavior Discussion/Forecast

2010 Southwest Area Winter Fire Season

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Valid Date: January 23, 2010	Date/Time Updated: 1/23/10 @1700 MST
Next Major Update: Occasionally as I have time and new info. Automatically updating graphics and links will continue to do so.	Signed: Tim Stubbs, Fire Behavior Analyst, Air Tactical Supervisor

Click HERE for products produced for Texas Forest Service during Summer, 2009. The automatically updating products are continuing to do so.

**RECENT AND CURRENT FIRE ACTIVITY:

RED FLAG WARNINGS are back again in Eastern New Mexico/West Texas and there have been some large wildland fires. See Wildlandfire.com Hotlist Forum for details of individual fires.

SWCC Morning Intelligence Report	Inciweb	Modis Active Fire Mapping	National Situation Report	Wildlandfire.com Hotlist Forum	NEW! Ramblings of a Chief Officer (My Favorite Blogsite)	NEW! FireBehaviorServicesLLC Editorial Blogsite

**CURRENT AND EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER AND BEHAVIOR:
(Use Ctrl-F5 to update all weather charts if needed)

Prescott Airport	Fort Huachuca Airport	Safford Airport	Silver City (Grant County) Airport	Albuquerque Airport	Alamogordo Airport	Alpine Airport

Arizona Mesowest Weather	New Mexico Mesowest Weather	Texas Mesowest Weather	Southwest Area ROMAN Weather	SENM/WTX Skywarn	National Precipitation Analysis

Day 1 Southwest Area Fire Weather:		Day 2 Southwest Area Fire Weather:

NWS Obs and Forecasts (clickable map)

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Weather Forecasts

>

Click maps to enlarge, maps update automatically

	Temperature	Relative Humidity	Winds	Precipitation
Today
Tomorrow
Next Day

RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE DEPICTED ON THE MAP BELOW RIGHT WHERE FIRE BEHAVIOR POTENTIAL WILL BE UPWARDS OF VERY ACTIVE TO EXTREME. Click all maps/charts to enlarge, maps and charts update automatically

National Forecast Fire Danger	National Significant Fire Potential Map

National Current Weather Map	Clickable USA Radar Loop: (click to start)

Forecasted 1000 Hour Fuel Moisture	Southwest Area ERC Charts

Forecasted Haines Index	National Visual Greeness

7 Day Fire Potential Slideshow (click to start)	CPC 6-10 Day Temperature/Precipitation:

US Drought Monitor	Drought Outlook Products	5 Day Precipitation Forecast

 

**RECENT FIRE BEHAVIOR OBSERVATIONS:

The Etchevery Fire north of Lovington NM exhibited VERY ACTIVE to EXTREME fire behavior on 1/22 in an almost 7000 acres, wind driven, 10 mile run. Tall grass fuels in most of this area will now continue to support this type of fire behavior on windy days (which are seasonally normal).

FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST MAP (currently out of date)

 

**OPERATIONAL AND SAFETY IMPLICATIONS:

IN AREAS OF ACTIVE THROUGH EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FIREFIGHTERS WILL BE AT RISK WITH ANY FRONTAL ASSAULT AT THE HEAD OF THE FIRE. ESTABLISH A SAFE ANCHOR POINT AT THE REAR OF THE FIRE. ATTACK FROM THE BLACK IN LIGHT, FLASHY FUELS!! USE A FLANKING ACTION WITH ENGINES AND/OR DOZERS IN COMBINATION WITH AIRCRAFT IF AVAILABLE. AVOID FRONTAL ASSAULT WITH GROUND RESOURCES!! SEE ALSO "Implications of Fire Behavior Forecast Adjective Ratings".

**Adjective Ratings for Fire Behavior AS RELATED TO THE HAUL CHART: (Click Chart for Publication)

**AVIATION: (currently inactive)

NEW!! Firepirates.com (Thanks Mike Lynn)

**PUBLICATIONS:

Paul Gleason: The Art of Firefighting	Standard Fire Behavior Fuel Models: A Comprehensive Set for Use with Rothermel's Surface Fire Spread Model,	Southwest Coordination Center Fire Behavior Reference Tables and Documents	Doug Campbell: The Art of Wildland Firefighting	Tim Lynch, MTDC: Proposal to Codify Recognition Primed Fire Behavior Prediction	NEW!! HR 4488

NEW!! After Action Review Format (PowerPoint)	NEW!! Chimpanzees Can Predict Fire Behavior	NEW!! Paul Gleason: Standing Accountable - Lessons Learned from Cerro Grande (Video)	NEW!! Dick Rothermel, PhD: Use a Crayon to Model Fire Behavior	NEW!! USFS Wildland Fire Risk Management 2009	NEW!! Valles Caldera Proposal	NEW!! Doug Campbell: Fire Behavior Tuneup for Structural Firefighters

**FUNNIES:

NEW!! Cartoon: Firefighting in the Urban Interface, Circa 1933	NEW!! Donald Duck, Fire Chief, Circa 1958

**VALIDATION AND FEEDBACK:

Please contact us and provide feedback on the accuracy of these forecasts. Your observations about general fuel conditions and observed fire behavior help validate our forecasts.

Our bottom line and the reason we are here is to provide for the safety of firefighters and the public.

Tim Stubbs, Fire Behavior Analyst/Long Term Fire Analyst/Air Tactical Group Supervisor
Fire Behavior Services LLC
email: FBANServices@aol.com
http://twitter.com/timcstubbs
cell: 575-361-8467

INITIATE ALL ACTIONS BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR!

PLEASE SUPPORT THE WILDLAND FIREFIGHTER FOUNDATION!!!

PowerPoint: Paul Gleason Memorial

**NEW! FIRE BEHAVIOR LESSONS LEARNED FROM WIDLANDFIRE.COM

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Fire Behavior Services LLC
906 Malaga Road, Carlsbad, New Mexico 88220 

 

 

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